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Counterfactuals Causal inference is easier when the effects are large and sudden. The COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying policy measures caused economic disruption so stark that sophisticated statistical approaches were unnecessary for many questions. For example, unemployment jumped sharply in the early weeks of the pandemic, leaving little room for alternative explanations.
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Alhaji Zaharaddeen Abubakar is one of those stranded in the northern Nigerian city of Kano after buying plane tickets and securing accommodation in Mecca.
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